OPEC+ Countries to Continue Increasing Oil Production: What Will Happen to Oil Prices?
Seven participants in the OPEC+ agreement are expected to approve an increase in oil production quotas of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August during their meeting on Sunday, July 5, according to Reuters sources. At first glance, this decision may seem counterintuitive given current market conditions. Brent crude is currently trading at around $72 per barrel, whereas just a few months ago, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, prices reached $90–100 per barrel. This raises an important question: will the planned OPEC+ production increase lead to a further decline in oil prices?
Artur Leer, President of the Association of Exporters and Importers (AEI), commented for MK.RU:
“The expected agreement by seven OPEC+ member countries to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August is consistent with the market strategy established by previous decisions. This is not a sharp increase in supply, but rather a gradual and measured adjustment. These steps are strategic rather than reactive. In the current geopolitical and economic environment, the alliance is pursuing a more flexible approach to market management, where moderate quota adjustments help maintain market balance while reducing the risk of sharp price fluctuations.
As for current oil prices, the recent decline has been driven by a combination of factors, including changes in global demand from major economies and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East and around key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, an increase of 188,000 barrels per day should not be viewed as a decisive factor influencing overall price dynamics.
Concerns that this decision could trigger a significant additional decline in oil prices are largely overstated. Given the scale of the global oil market, the proposed increase represents a relatively modest adjustment to supply.”
We will discuss this topic and other key developments in international trade at the AEI masterclass “The Open Map of International Trade: Customs, Finance, and New Opportunities”, taking place on July 25 in an exclusive countryside venue. The event will feature in-depth analysis of real market scenarios, practical case studies, and expert insights on the latest trends in global trade.
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