Favorable Market Conditions: Russia’s Foreign Trade Turnover Could Reach Nearly $1 Trillion
What will drive trade growth, and how is the situation in the Middle East affecting global markets?
Russia’s foreign trade turnover could increase by 10% in 2026 and approach the $1 trillion mark. Exports of goods and services are expected to reach approximately $525 billion, while imports may total around $420 billion, according to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia (based on data analyzed by Izvestia). The primary driver of this growth is expected to be increased revenue from high oil prices. However, the outlook remains heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East. Following a brief period of stabilization, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have intensified once again.
Artur Leer, President of the Association of Exporters and Importers, commented for Izvestia:
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, there is a strong likelihood that Russia’s foreign trade turnover will indeed approach $1 trillion in 2026. The key driver will be increased revenue from elevated oil prices, explained Vladimir Yeremkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Structural Studies Laboratory of the Presidential Academy. Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from the renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, have been the primary factor behind rising global oil prices. At their peak, both Brent and Urals crude traded above $110 per barrel. However, following the signing of the 60-day memorandum, prices declined rapidly. As of 18:00 Moscow time on June 29, Urals crude was trading at $58.5 per barrel, while Brent stood at $73 per barrel.
At the same time, the energy crisis is not the only factor driving trade growth. Actual trade volumes have also increased significantly. According to Artur Leer, President of the Association of Exporters and Importers and Managing Partner of Lex Alliance, substantial expansion has been observed in the agro-industrial sector, high-tech services, healthcare, and value-added manufacturing industries. He also noted significant growth in the engineering and machinery sectors.
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